Björksäter 28 May 2023
In 1979, Tage Danielsson stated in his famous monologue on probability that "it is as if what happened in Harrisburg was so incredibly unlikely that it probably didn't actually happen", referring to the nuclear accident in Harrisburg that year. In fact, the accident also changed the way we calculate the probability of accident risk. The old adage ' many small streams make a big river ' had an impact on the nuclear industry. But neither the accident nor Tage Danielsson's text had any major impact on risk thinking in society in general.
The greenhouse effect - the scientifically proven link between rising carbon dioxide levels and rising temperatures in the atmosphere - is a clear-cut relationship that has been known since Svante Arrhenius explained it in 1896. The fact that humans, through industrialization and increased consumption, have contributed significantly to rising carbon dioxide levels has been known for almost as long. The fate of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and hence the global temperature, has also been established by countless studies. The scientific consensus is that humans need to dam their streams to reduce the risk of disaster.
Because the big river may feel comfortable to paddle along. But the fate of many rivers is the overflow of a great river. The river is even more comfortable to travel on. You can relax and enjoy yourself on a river cruise. The river takes you gently through the world - until it overflows or reaches a waterfall. We little creatures of the stream do not survive the force of disaster. From this, we can learn that we need to take care of the flow of our own stream so as not to transfer the problem of climate change further down the system through drainage.
One major river that we can influence is the forestry industry. This river wants to create rapid flows of raw materials from forests to the river of consumption and abundance by diverting small tributaries and rearranging the river's banks. By protecting larger areas of old-growth forest the influxes can be limited. Because old-growth forests are our best land-based carbon sink. And our minimum effort is to refrain from destroying it. So how do we do that?
We return to the idea of probability. By Sweden's entire land area of 41 million hectares, 22% is unproductive bare land or marshland. The remaining 78% is "productive" land. If humans didn't exist, that entire area would be natural forest with well-functioning ecosystems. Today it looks like this instead. Out of 78% productive land is:
Much of the 3% voluntarily allocated forest land is fragmented into isolated small islands of old-growth forest, e.g. unprotected key biotopes. Due to certification requirements, these small islands usually represent about 5% of a property. This means that it is not rationally possible to protect most of the remaining unprotected old-growth forest, which instead continues to be felled at a higher rate than it is protected.
When I go through all the forest properties that are for sale in Sweden right now (about 400) and add the almost one hundred that have been sold so far this year, I'll be happy if a couple of them, i.e. about 2 in 500, meet the criteria of mainly being old-growth forest, in order to be acquired by Naturarvet. The probability is greater if Naturarvet has access to the capital to acquire forest that is for sale for a short time. At the moment, access to capital is limited, thus halving the probability of an acquisition to about 1 in 500. Recently, a beech forest in Skåne fell away because we did not have enough money.
This can be easily remedied by all of us contributing more gifts and ensuring that more people become donors at Naturarvet. It shouldn't be too difficult for us little creatures of the stream to understand that it is by taking care of the stream's flow that we avoid disaster downstream. Instead of feeding the flow by continued consumption of forest land, which we know leads to a rapidly approaching disaster, the flow can be slowed down by burying more of our money in the forest floor.
Let your money contribute to the permanent protection of old-growth forest by donating to Naturarvet. Give gifts so that more people can see the opportunity to care for our last Old Growth forests. Start with mom today and become forest patron and continue as soon as the opportunity arises to give away the most beautiful thing I know - a piece of a old-growth forest that through Naturarvet is preserved for the sake of the species and the climate for current and future generations. Together we can preserve the precious life on earth!
Lo Jarl, Operations Manager, Ecologist, Naturarvet